Friday, April 04, 2008


So we have almost eliminated pandemic as a real risk and we have realized that it's not climate change that's going to's what climate change is going to change that's going to kill us.
We should all agree that water conservation is needed and needed badly but come on, no one but a few of us are going to bother. The rest of you are going to say you are conserving but it will be bullshit. People willing to buy a McMansion for a family of three aren't the kind of people who think independently and creatively . They will start conserving the exact moment the water gets turned off.
And that is what is going to have to happen. The problem is the effects of climate change have become unstoppable. I don't care how many meetings we have or how many agreements we sign. It's to late to stop this train and we burnt out it's brakes anyway.
Because the climate is going to change we have to accept that there are going to be parts of the world that will become uninhabitable. Any place that hosts a desert right now is lost. Deserts get bigger not smaller as any Northern African resident can tell you. A temp degree warmer, some regular winds and a few centimeters less rainfall and you are fighting a losing battle. It makes more sense not to bother putting up a fight at all. Give the desert back and save the resources where they can really count.
This may reveal a certain lack of hospitality from the neighbours though. When Katrina hit it took the news media seconds to label the survivors refugees. As if Americans stop being Americans the moment they cross the state line. Expect a few million drought or water refugees. Will there be enough FEMA trailers for them?
If people within a country are less than welcome in the next state what of those that need to move from their country to another?
Nothing charitable I can bet.
Water wars may be another conservation method .

The only way to survive drought and the resulting wars over water is mostly pure,blind luck. The luck to be born in a half assed (at least) democracy, the luck to be living in a state/province/country that has at least one great lake in it. The luck to be living in a colder climate than your warmer dryer neighbours so you still get rain and snow.

If you weren't born lucky you better make your own fast. Don't wait to relocate. Move before they move you and put you in a refugee camp.
Move to the cold and the wet. It's much easier to build a warm home than it is to conjure water where there is none.
Mass forced immigration will be the gold standard. Have a look at the survival rate of the refugees of Darfur and Chad...a war over water in action.
Drought and water rationing wont kill us. Once again it will be our reaction to it that will.

I can easily see World War 3 erupting because of the overwhelming numbers of refugees rushing the gates and fences.

We talk about having the ability to solve global problems but who's kidding who here? Racism and Intolerance in all it's vicious, ugly forms are alive and well and only need a match to light it all up.
Half the world would rather to see the other half die of thirst before opening their borders.
An eighth of all Americans want South American illegals arrested or shot at the border for having the audacity to want a job they would never be willing to do. I can bet that percentage is going to shoot up dramatically when something real is at stake, like water.
A quarter of the world would be willing to shoot you for what they perceive as the wrong religion, the wrong politics..the wrong colour of skin right now. They would be willing to do much, much more than shooting if you needed their water.

If we planned for drought, moved those in harms way into better supplied areas and enforced conservation drastically we could survive it. But we are too backward a people to ever be able to work so co-operatively on such a global scale.
We would prefer to kidnap and then ransom the water. Those that couldn't afford the cost would die. And despite that most of us would still survive.
Drought wont kill all of us, just the weakest , the unlucky..the poor.
Nothing new about that.
We can take it off the list.


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